Global methanol demand growth will exceed capacity expansion
China Drying Network News global methanol demand growth will exceed the speed of capacity expansion, which will lead to tighter methanol supply and further price increases. This is the message from the 46th European Petrochemical Association (EPCA) annual meeting held in Budapest, Hungary, from 6 to 10 October.
It is predicted that the average annual growth rate of global methanol demand will be 10.5% in the next five years, and the current global demand is estimated to have just exceeded 50 million tons/year. During this period, the global supply of methanol is expected to increase by 3 million tons per year, most of which is supplied by the restart of idle devices, and fewer new production projects. According to industry sources, the new demand in the next few years will be mainly concentrated on the MTO plant in Asia. In order to ensure the supply of raw materials, many methanol-to-olefins projects have also established a dedicated methanol plant during the construction process. However, relevant experts believe that there are six methanol-to-olefins plants that will need to obtain methanol feedstock from the commodity market according to the plan. After the six plants are put into production, at least 8 million tons of commodity methanol will be needed each year. Since methanol-to-olefins projects are mainly built in China, most of the new demand comes from Asia, but most of the new supply is located in the surrounding areas of the Atlantic Basin.
Methanex, the world's largest methanol producer, plans to relocate a 1 million-ton/year methanol plant in Chile to Louisiana. At present, the company has four methanol plants in Chile, but because of the limited supply of natural gas, only one set actually operates. The company is also brewing similar relocation of the second device.
Leander Basel, based in the Netherlands, plans to restart the 780,000 t/y methanol plant in Channelview, Texas. The plant was shut down since March 2003 due to high gas prices at the time.
The recent North American shale gas revolution led to a sharp drop in local natural gas prices. Many petrochemical companies have decided to expand their petrochemical production capacity in North America. In addition, Libya’s National Oil Company is also expected to restart two methanol production lines with a total capacity of 660,000 tons/year in Marsa El-Brega, which were closed at the beginning of the Libyan civil war. Azerbaijan Methanol Company (AzMeCo) also plans to start production of a new methanol plant with a capacity of 720,000 tons/year in March 2013.
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