LNG get the world's energy changes to promote heavy card reshuffle?

The overall situation of “Gasification of China” is uncertain, and it is understood that the first movers have already been among them. In 2012, LNG heavy truck sales bucked the trend. Behind this phenomenon, another possibility may be brewing for the development of the heavy truck industry...

For heavy-duty truck manufacturers, the market conditions that have continued to decline in the past two years are making them feel unexpectedly cold. According to statistics from the China Automobile Association, heavy-duty truck sales were 880,600 in 2011, a year-on-year decrease of 13.44%; in 2012, heavy truck sales were 634,000, a year-on-year decrease of 27.63%. Even though Dongfeng Corporation steadily took the hegemony of heavy trucks with sales of 130,000 units last year, it also suffered a negative growth of 29.52%, which is far from the original target of 163,000 vehicles.

However, there are exceptions. In the overall downturn of the industry, LNG (liquefied natural gas) heavy-duty trucks have grown against the trend. After LNG heavy trucks increased by 30% year-on-year in 2011, LNG heavy truck sales in 2012 reached 10,000, a year-on-year increase of more than 60%, making it the biggest bright spot in the heavy-duty industry.

Nowadays, no heavy-duty truck manufacturer is willing to miss this market segment: Liberation, Dongfeng, China National Heavy Duty Truck and Foton have all produced their own LNG heavy-duty trucks, and adjusted their LNG heavy truck sales plans, which already account for half of LNG heavy trucks. Steam is determined to maintain its leading position, and Beibei, SAIC Iveco Hongyan, Jianghuai, and Hualing Xingma in the heavy truck industry are also pushing their LNG heavy trucks. Recall that just a few years ago, LNG heavy trucks were rarely visited.

"Golden Age"

"As early as during the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" period, the National 863 Plan has already started to organize LNG heavy truck projects. Although the LNG heavy trucks have better economic and environmental performance than diesel heavy trucks, the approval procedures for gas station construction in the past were complicated and the infrastructure Insufficient matching has always hindered the development of LNG heavy trucks,” an industry source told China Mechatronic Industry.

It is not difficult to understand that this is a game between the supply side represented by PetroChina, Sinopec and CNOOC (“three barrels of oil”) and the demand side represented by LNG heavy truck users: is there enough gas stations to facilitate refueling? How many vehicles to refuel, whether the input-output ratio is considerable ... both parties to supply and demand trade-offs, are reluctant to fall into the passive due to sloppy investment.

However, the “enhancement era” is still closely following the pace of energy structure adjustments. According to official statistics, in 2012, China’s demand for natural gas showed a significant growth trend. Consumption reached 147.1 billion cubic meters, an increase of 13.0%, and the dependence on imports was as high as 29%, which was significantly higher than the 22% in 2011. The continuous increase in demand for natural gas in China is not a special case.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) announced at the beginning of its report “Golden Rules for the Golden Age of Natural Gas” published on March 29, 2012 that “Natural gas is about to enter a golden period...” The IEA report stated: “2010-2035, Global Natural Gas Demand will increase by more than 50%, and the increase in natural gas demand will be equivalent to the sum of coal, oil, and nuclear energy, which will exceed the growth of renewable energy, and the share of natural gas in the global energy mix will reach 25 in 2035. %, more than coal becomes the second largest primary energy after oil."

The time has gradually matured, and the "three barrels of oil" has finally begun to move toward natural gas. The supply of LNG has also risen. PetroChina plans to build more than 5,000 LNG refueling stations during the "12th Five-Year Plan" period. Sinopec also announced that it began to sell natural gas nationwide in January this year, and CNOOC completed the LNG layout in dozens of coastal cities in China. In addition to the three barrels of oil, some private enterprises are also actively engaged in the development of LNG refueling stations. The “Design and Construction of Auto Refueling Stations” formally implemented on March 1 this year is more marketable for LNG refueling stations. The specifications provide the basis.

“After the bottleneck that is difficult to add gas, the market for natural gas vehicles will be incalculable.” According to experts of the Institute of Market Research of the China National Petroleum Institute of Economics and Technology, by 2015, the number of natural gas vehicles in China will reach 1.5 million, and it will reach 2020. With 3 million vehicles, the compound annual growth rate for the next five years will also be as high as 27%. In the past two years, the growth rate of LNG vehicle sales in China has been maintained at more than 30%. It is expected that the growth rate of LNG vehicle ownership in China will be maintained at more than 50% in the next two years. More people in the industry believe that the current LNG heavy truck has entered a period of rapid development, and the demand for LNG heavy trucks will increase at a rate of nearly 2 times per year in the past three years.

To be sure, while natural gas ushered in the "golden era", LNG heavy trucks have gradually entered the "golden" stage of development. Some people boldly predict that LNG heavy trucks will become the protagonist in the heavy truck market, and the market share may even exceed the traditional Heavy truck diesel.

First into the king?

Recalling the LNG heavy truck market in 2012, the most important part of the market is, of course, Shaanxi Automobile, which accounts for half of the LNG heavy truck market. It is reported that Shaanxi Automobile LNG heavy trucks sold more than 7,000 vehicles throughout the year, an increase of nearly 300% compared with the same period last year. Although its heavy truck sales declined overall, its heavy truck market share actually increased by 1.88 percentage points depending on the strong growth of LNG models.

According to Shao Guoqiang, vice president of Shaanxi Automotive Automotive Engineering Research Institute and chief engineer of sales company, Shaanxi Auto successfully developed China's first single-fuel pure natural gas heavy truck as early as 2005, filling the domestic gap, and a number of technologies are at the international advanced level. . In 2006, Shaanxi Automobile also undertook the development of a "heavy LNG commercial vehicle product" of the national 863 major project. Since then, it has started the continuous research on LNG heavy trucks.

Although Shaanxi Automobile sold only more than 100 LNG heavy trucks at that time, the order of Shaanxi Steam LNG heavy trucks has grown rapidly since 2010. “With the continuous improvement of the LNG refueling infrastructure and Shaanxi Automobile’s early deployment in the LNG heavy-duty truck market, there was a large outbreak of sales last year and a three-fold sales performance.” Shao Guoqiang said.

What does it mean to occupy half of the LNG heavy truck? Let’s make an interesting assumption. According to industry experts' forecasts, by 2025, LNG heavy trucks will account for more than half of the entire heavy truck market. Assuming this prediction becomes a reality, Shaanxi Automobile still can account for half of the LNG heavy truck market. With LNG heavy trucks alone, Shaanxi Auto can thus gain a 25% market share in the heavy truck market. Today's top-ranking Dongfeng still has no more than 20% market share in the heavy truck market. It can be imagined that 25% of the company's market share is sufficient to dominate the entire heavy truck market.

Perhaps precisely because of the optimistic estimation of the forward market, major heavy truck manufacturers have already begun to act. In order to deploy the LNG heavy truck market as early as possible, CNHTC, Jiefang, Futian, and the joint trucks have all formulated practical strategic plans. Even Dongfeng, which once had concerns about promoting the LNG heavy truck market in a large scale, was also in November last year at the Wuhan Commercial Vehicle Show. Demonstrated its own LNG models.

China National Heavy Duty Truck (2012 LNG heavy truck sales ranked second) also targeted the LNG heavy truck market first place, China National Heavy Truck Sales General Manager Yun Qingtian said at the heavy truck 2013 business annual meeting, the new year, China National Heavy Duty Truck Sales' sales target for natural gas trucks is 10,000 vehicles. The liberation of the new Dawei and New Converse have successively developed LNG models, and the 2013 LNG sales plan is set at 7,000.

According to Feng Yi, deputy general manager of Futian Market Management, Futian completed the business strategy, organizational planning, and channel planning for LNG heavy trucks last year. This year is the year of capacity. As a new force for domestic heavy trucks, LNG heavy truck sales of joint trucks accounted for 20% of its annual sales in the past year. In the future, it intends to use LNG heavy trucks to achieve counterattacks in the heavy truck market.

In order to develop the LNG heavy truck market, the sales model of the manufacturers is also continuously innovating. According to Feng Hao, Futian Auman has already carried out strategic cooperation with gas source manufacturers such as Huayou Energy and Xinjie Energy in the LNG terminal market, and has reached a limit of 50 vehicles for the construction of skid-mounted stations and 100 vehicles for the construction of standard stations. protocol. In addition, Futian Auman also proposed that "the first vehicle is completely free of charge", even for LNG heavy truck customers to provide more favorable loan down payment, interest rates and deadlines. It is understood that such a sales model is already very common in the LNG heavy truck market. Joint heavy trucks even call this cooperation model a "gas supply aircraft carrier."

Of course, the leader is not taken lightly. Fang Hongwei, chairman of Shaanxi Auto Holdings, once stated that Shaanqi had seen the development prospects of LNG heavy trucks for a long time. Natural gas heavy trucks have always been the main target of Shaanqi's R&D series. Shao Guoqiang also told reporters that in order to maintain the existing market share in LNG heavy trucks, Shaanxi Automobile will continue to develop the market, but will still use the innovative R&D of LNG heavy trucks as a powerful means to maintain its market advantages.

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