Zhongtong bus boosted by "school bus concept"

According to analysis by industry insiders, the potential market demand for professional school buses is as large as 400 billion yuan. The repeated accidents of school buses have constantly frayed the sensitive nerves of the regulators. The State Council has instructed the relevant departments to formulate the "School Safety Regulations" within one month, to step up the improvement of the school bus standards, and to do a good job in school bus involvement, production, renovation, and equipment. The market is concerned that Wen Jiabao also pointed out that the funds required for the school bus work are shared by the central and local governments and raised in multiple ways.

Affected by this, the collective performance of school bus stocks was strong yesterday. The most eye-catching Zhongtong Bus (000957.SZ) hit a daily limit. It eventually closed at 8.02 yuan/share, up 7.51%, and the exchange rate reached 8.73% on the same day. 169 million yuan, Zhongtong Bus also entered the Shenzhen City Dragon and Tiger List due to active trading on that day; the school bus leader Yutongtong (600066.SH) rose 5.32% to close at 23.36 yuan per share; Yaxing Bus ( 600213.SH), Jinlong Automobile (600686.SH), Ankai Bus (000868.SZ), Shuguang Stock (600303.SH) also rose significantly.

Analysts who had zero sales of Hongyuan Securities within two years and interviewed the "Securities Daily" reporter pointed out that although the Yutong Bus is currently the leading company in the domestic school bus market, it occupies approximately 20% of the market share, but due to the market value of Yutong Bus You have reached 12.145 billion yuan, and many of these funds have settled in. This is not conducive to speculation. The market value of Zhongtong Bus is only RMB 1,913 million. For the funds that pursue the concept of school bus, Zhongtong Bus is more convenient for hype.

The analyst further pointed out that in fact, as early as mid-November school bus accidents, Zhongtong bus has received institutional funds of all ages. Hexun data shows that as of the 10 trading days before November 28, 170 million yuan of institutional funds had flowed into Zhongtong Bus.

What is the actual bus sales of Zhongtong Bus, which has become the hottest school bus concept stock in the capital market? In an interview with the “Securities Daily” reporter, the staff of the Directorate Office of Zhongtong Bus Directorate stated that in 2010, the company did not achieve school bus sales in the true sense. As of 2011, the company has not yet received orders for school bus sales, but some Microbus models sold may be used as school buses.

The hot stock of the school bus concept is the embarrassing situation of school bus sales. Liu Lixi, an analyst at Northeast Securities, pointed out that as a result of traffic accident stimuli, related concept stocks have been active and funds have actively participated. However, investors should not be too optimistic about chasing, combined with the overall environment of the entire automotive market, this year is not ideal. The school bus concept does not support the entire automobile market. Such a market is difficult to sustain, and what is more likely to happen is the “day tour” market.

The potential market size of 400 million yuan in the capital market, the school bus concept stocks is very rampant, and the domestic school bus market behind it is indeed on the verge of change.

Due to the previous lack of supervision, lack of operating mechanisms and low purchasing power, the current market for professional school bus products in China has not yet fully started. The vast majority of domestic school bus products are made of ordinary minibuses, and even use minivans and miniatures. Instead of trucks, and often experiencing severe overloading, safety cannot be discussed.

In July 2010, the General Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine of the People's Republic of China (AQSIQ) and the National Standards Commission jointly issued the "Safety Technical Conditions for School Buses for Specialized Pupils" The national standard has very detailed technical regulations for the body strength, interior materials, seat construction, passive safety protection facilities, and emergency equipment in emergency situations of private school buses. Passenger cars that meet the technical conditions will have significantly higher safety than ordinary passenger cars on the market. In August this year, the Ministry of Education officially launched the school bus pilot work and selected six regions including Deqing County of Huzhou, Zhejiang Province and Xiliang District of Xi'an, Shaanxi Province to carry out school bus operation and management pilot projects.

"In addition to the "School Bus Safety Regulations" that are expected to be introduced within a month, it is foreseeable that once the Ministry of Education's school bus trials begin to be promoted, the school bus market space will be opened and the school bus market will enter explosive growth," said Hong Yuan Securities. The division said.

According to public information, at present, there are about 150 million middle and primary school students in schools in China, and currently there are only 10,000 reserved school buses that meet the standards in China, and the number of thousands of students is only 0.12. This compares with the school buses in the United States and Japan. The system of relatively mature national thousand school buses has a far cry from the standard of 36 vehicles and 18 vehicles. According to the research report of Orient Securities, the potential demand for professional school buses in China is about 1 million, and the potential market demand is 400 billion yuan.

However, in the face of a potential market of 400 billion yuan, domestic school bus manufacturers seem to be "not ready yet." Up to now, the only school in China that has achieved large-scale sales of Yutong buses has sold 600 school buses in 2010. In 2011, it expects sales of 2,000 buses. In addition, Ankai bus has reached a sales contract of 3,000 school buses with Saudi Arabia this year, setting a record for domestic school bus exports, while other bus concept stocks, including Zhongtong Bus, Yaxing Bus, Jinlong Automobile, and Shuguang Stock, have so far There are no transcripts to be submitted on school bus production and large-scale sales.