Recently, the domestic oil market is in an extremely sensitive period and urgently requires clear policy signals.
On June 19, the National Development and Reform Commission made a decision to increase the price of refined oil products. Due to the acceleration of international oil prices this year, the gap between domestic and foreign oil prices is too large, and the loss of refining companies is serious. The increase in oil prices after eight months is the largest one in history.
The increase in oil prices has a certain positive effect on alleviating the pressure on domestic oil refining companies and stabilizing the supply of refined oil products. At the same time, the oil price increase has taken related supporting measures and will effectively curb the indirect effects and inflation expectations brought about by the price adjustment. Prior to this, it was widely expected by society that the possibility of an increase in oil prices after the Olympic Games was greater. Therefore, the choice of time for this price adjustment became a topic of common concern.
First of all, the domestic oil refining companies have suffered large losses, and the tight supply of oil products in some regions is the main reason for price adjustment.
The international crude oil price soared by about 40% this year. The contradiction between the price of domestic refined oil and the inversion of crude oil prices has become increasingly prominent. Refining companies have suffered more losses in production, resulting in a loss of 3,000 yuan per ton of oil. This has caused the shutdown and semi-discontinuation of some refineries, especially local refineries, affecting the refined oil market. supply. The phenomenon of queued refueling and suspension of supply restriction has recently appeared in some regions.
Although the state has significantly increased financial subsidies, the subsidies are mainly directed at large state-owned oil companies and cannot solve the problem of local refinery losses. According to a survey conducted by the National Development and Reform Commission, the operating rate of Shandong local refineries in 2007 was only about 50%, and this year it further dropped to around 40%. Although local refineries imported part of the fuel oil for processing and some state-owned large companies commissioned the processing of some oil products, the overall low operating rate led to the inefficient use of local refinery production capacity, resulting in tight supply and demand in the overall oil product market.
According to statistics, in May this year, China produced a total of 16.529 million tons of refined oil products, a decrease of 1.3% over the same period of last year, which was the first time in three years. Therefore, timely and appropriate increase in refined oil prices will help ease production and business difficulties, increase domestic oil supply.
Secondly, the price regulation “simplifies both the root causes and the symptoms, and basically treats the problems†has sent a new policy signal.
Since the beginning of this year, safeguarding the stability of the refined oil market by increasing financial subsidies is an expedient measure made in consideration of the overall domestic economic situation, and it is a solution to the problem.
On June 13th, the Central People's Government and the State Council convened a meeting of major responsible comrades at the provincial, district, and central departments to issue a policy signal based on the principle of "treating the disease at its root." The meeting proposed that "we must use economic, legal, and necessary administrative means in an integrated manner, focusing on economic means, focusing on treating both the symptoms and the problem, combining the distance and the nearness, and making every effort to address this problem. We must do everything possible to prevent the general price level from rising too quickly." Thus, the meeting We have clarified the policy direction of fundamentally solving the problem of rising prices and ensuring the effective supply of key materials and products.
Third, China's inflation is still within the controllable range, which provides conditions for price adjustment.
In the first five months of this year, China's CPI increased by 8.1% year-on-year, and inflationary pressures were relatively serious. In addition, current inflation has both demand-driven and cost-driven factors, as well as input-type inflation factors. However, by adopting a series of macro-control measures, the country has, to a certain extent, curbed the momentum of accelerated inflation. The increase in food prices has steadily stabilized and the price hikes have been reduced in the second half of the year. At present, inflation is still within the controllable range.
In addition, the price adjustment of refined oil products has taken corresponding supporting measures to improve the predictability of price control, which will effectively curb price indirect inflationary pressure and inflation expectations brought about by price adjustment. Therefore, there is currently a macroeconomic environment with an upward adjustment in oil prices.
Fourth, strengthening international energy cooperation requires reducing hidden oil price subsidies.
On June 7, the energy ministers’ meeting of China, Japan, the United States, India, and Korea, held in Japan, called for strengthening cooperation and coordination among countries to jointly cope with high oil prices.
The meeting held that the price subsidies for traditional energy sources should be phased out and gradually phased out, and market-based real energy prices can help increase energy efficiency and increase investment in alternative energy sources. The elimination of oil price subsidies will help reduce government expenditures and achieve domestic and global energy and economic integration. Since then, in the Fourth China-US Strategic Economic Dialogue, energy and environmental cooperation has been a very important area of ​​cooperation in which the two countries share common challenges but also share common interests. The two countries signed the “Sino-U.S. Energy and Environment Decade Cooperation Frameworkâ€. file. Therefore, gradually reducing oil price subsidies and opening up price levels will help curb oil consumption and increase energy efficiency. This has become the basic consensus of all parties.
Fifth, the price of oil is generally raised in neighboring countries and regions, which has a certain demonstration effect.
In order to avoid the impact of high oil prices on the lives of related industries and people, Asian governments have adopted price control measures this year to resist high oil prices through financial subsidies. However, with oil prices hitting new highs, many Asian countries and regions have eased their control over oil prices.
On May 25, the Indonesian government took the lead in announcing an increase in fuel prices by 25% to 33%. On June 4, India increased the price of refined oil by 9% to 17%, which is India's largest increase in refined oil prices in 12 years. The Malaysian government also announced that it will increase its refined oil prices from June 5, with gasoline up 40.6% and diesel prices up 63.3%. The neighboring countries and regions have raised oil prices to China and brought a demonstration effect, and to a certain extent, reduced the resistance of China's price adjustment.
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